Is Dollar Hegemony Inevitable? Possibilities for Reform in the Global Reserve System

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Prof Anush Kapadia present ed paper with palatatable treat of ingredients of global economy. Speaker spoke on his papers with possible reforms in Global Reserve system but the autonomy and sovereignty of the markets  are dynamically important.  Political alignments, with  trade and  finance along with global exports, balance of payments need to be globally robust. With regional economy in the unpredictable dynamics, the up and down of dollars in comparison to sterling EU Dollar, US dollar rule globally due to its intrinsic strength .Political stability, economy of nations with their supremacy on economy along with robust monetary and financial policy of the nations were discussed.US has the strength to bear economy quakes and can rebound. Regional Banks Asian Dev Bank, Scots, Brics Bank and other international banks are making space. Political stability and supremacy is vital as its strength is directly proportionate to Institute central banks of nations.Bankers bank is tool of trade and governs monetary and fiscal policy to inject and dilute liquidity. Dollar rule due to US security bill of German Japan Nato etc  .EU dollar too had its capacity with fiscal ingredients but dollar instantity readiness C6Swap 2013 made it more trust worthy. Government bonds of US in which most country repose faith and are easily encashed across globe.China now number two Economy of world invested hugely in US bonds make it mettle ductile.

Oil global traded need dollar in exchange of US .But new Innovation and technology which keep economy in dynamically state as per national reach and teach. The economist mostly miss speaker did not touch thoroughly but mechanic s of war was expressed.

Speaker touching global fiscal institute with homogenous International fiscal  policy is impossible.However economy fiscal policy rule as per economy cycle of each nation which can never be monolithic edifice.Two brilliant captive market China India grow as global engine of growth to bring inertia to inert global market due the duo skill will intrinsic strength to absorb global Innovation to which speaker eluded. His lecture was treat to listen touching various economy cornerstone well narrated with rich diction of subject. CPR subjects and it’s researchers keep mind enliven with wholesome and rich inputs. China India two captive market are duo global engine to give boost to global demand thus stability of these Asian market is important unless Latin American market mature to its optimum level. US experiment of capitalism WW2 in 1942  with market control economy rule the globe is now gathering and bearing rich dividend with We the people magic mantra in the US Constitution in which UK US Other nation get holistic stirring.

China and India Two economy fares  as follows:

India’s foreign exchange surged by a whopping 2.02 billion US dollars to 369.95 billion US dollars in the week that ended on 31st of March 2017. A RBI press release has informed that foreign currency assets, a major part of the overall reserves rose by 2.08 billion US dollars to 346.32 billion US dollars.

In the previous week too, the reserves had shot up by 1.15 billion US dollars to 367.93 billion US dollars.

Gold reserves, on the other hand moved down by 45 million US dollars to 19.87 billion US dollars.

India’s special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund also fell 5.1 million US dollars to 1.45 billion US dollars, while the country’s reserve position too dropped by 10.7 million US dollars to USD 2.32 billion US dollars.

India’s trade deficit with China was recorded at 46.7 billion US dollars during the April-February period of the last fiscal. Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed Rajya Sabha that overall trade with China during the 11-month period decreased marginally by 0.87 per cent to 64.57 billion US dollars.

She said in a written reply that during this period, India’s exports to China grew by 8.69 per cent to 8.94 billion US dollars while imports from the neighbouring nation declined by 2.26 per cent to 55.63 billion US dollars, resulting in a shrinkage of 4.1 per cent in India’s trade deficit with China. Brent crude oil futures rose 68 cents, to 55.57 dollars a barrel, after reaching an intra-day peak of 56.08 dollars a barrel, the highest since 7th of March. U.S. crude rose 70 cents, to 52.40 dollars a barrel. Although Syria has limited oil production, its location and alliances with big oil producers in the region mean any escalation of the conflict has the potential to increase supply-side fears.

The first lecture in a series on ‘Globalisation in Question’:
Is Dollar Hegemony Inevitable? Possibilities for Reform in the Global Reserve System

Prof Anush Kapadia

Conference Hall, Centre for Policy Research

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The global reserve system is dominated by a single currency, the US dollar, in which the vast bulk of global trade and finance is conducted. This currency hegemony gives the world’s only superpower the exorbitant privilege of having its own liabilities function as the global currency. Several scholars argue that the scale of this privilege help seed the financial crisis of 2007. Emerging markets poured their savings into dollar-denominated debt, creating a flood of cheap credit that lead to wild speculation and subsequent collapse. Since the crisis, several reform measures for this destabilising global reserve system have been suggested, with speculation on everything from a return to the gold standard, an elevation of the IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR), and the rise of the Chinese Renminbi being discussed. This lecture offers a systemic account of how the global reserve system works in order to evaluate these claims. It argues that that global currencies will continue to be nationally based, hence reforms will have to focus on international institutions capable of disciplining the (existing and/or rising) hegemon rather than creating new synthetic currencies like the SDR.

Prof Anush Kapadia teaches sociology in the Humanities and Social Sciences Department at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. He has studied at Amherst College and Columbia University, having completed his doctoral thesis in anthropology in 2009. Prior to IIT Bombay, Prof. Kapadia taught at City University, London and Harvard University. His research focuses on the politics of financial systems, trying to understand how system-design choices are also political choices, and how these choices lead to macro-social outcomes such as growth or crises.

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