Researcher Report: Not ours, Sagar Media inc:
Growthnet.6, Lessons for India for $10T Economy by 2030
June20, 2018 (C) Ravinder Singh email@example.com
Two things came up repeatedly at two days of 22 hours of intense deliberations were‘India to be $10T Economy by 2030’ and ‘Productivity growth of Indian Economy’ and there was no convincing reply. At the same venue in 1990 this inventor observed –‘India Contributes 2% to World GDP and 98% of GDP is generated outside India – India Should Serve this 98%’. India is presently contributing 3% to world GDP but population too has grown 60% in the meanwhile’.
Two most weird things repeated were ‘India may neglect Manufacturing & Focus on Services’ and ‘FIN-TECH’ facilitating financial transactions. India can’t serve $80 Trillion World GDP presently to $200T by 2030 by services which are basically BACK OFFICES.
YES India can be $10T Economy by 2030 But has to FOCUS on R&D, Manufacturing and Get Rid of Middlemen – Indian Economy is hurt in Three Ways When India imports $60b worth of Goods from China; First Indians pay $200b in retail, Second Creates huge BLACK MONEY and Third No Servicing of Imported Hardware.
Power Capacity Addition Growth 38% – Generation Growth 26%
Opening session was presentation by Piyush Goyal holding three portfolios Finance, Railways and Coal – till recently was Power minister also. Reliable data of Power sector is available. Growth in power generation in Apri-May14 – 176.814 BU and Apri-May18 – 214.494 BU was 37.680 BU. This is 21.31% Growth in 4 Years – accounting for Renewable would be 46 BU growth or 26%. Y-O-Y Growth rate Apr-May18 is 1.92% only which for Apr-May14 was 9%.
All India installed capacity in May14 was 248,509 MW which includes 31,692 MW of Renewables – four years later in May18 is 343,898 MW including 69,022 MW Renewables – 38.38%.
There was huge Increase in Railways CAPEX – but Railway throughput is negative or zero practically, average Speed of Trains has reduced – punctuality rate is down to 66% mainly because of no replacement of old Diesel Locos and Junked Coaches & Wagons.
JUNKED Diesel Locos serve 100% of the Railway Lines – including Electrified Lines.
There was no reason for ‘Cursing & Blaming Other Party’ when since 1998 two parties Led Government for 10 years each. Performance of Ruling Party is Going Down every day. NPAs had gone up 300%.
There was 44% Growth in Aggregate Deposits from Rs.78884 billion in May2014 toRs.113,922 billion May2018 but Credit growth was 41% from Rs.60,674 billion toRs.85,511 billion. But deployment Bank Credit was DISRUPTIVE –
Credit Growth Sector Wise April2018 from April2014
Gross Credit Growth 34.2% – Rs.76,130 b from Rs.56,724 = Rs.19,406 b
Ø Agriculture 48.7% – Rs.10,268 billion from Rs.6,901 billion = Rs.3,367 b
Ø Industry 5.4% – Rs.26,511 billion from Rs.25,140 billion = Rs.1,371 b
Ø Services 48.5% – Rs.19,813 billion from Rs.13,341 = Rs.6,472 b
Ø Personal Loans 84.8% – Rs.19,211 billion from Rs.10,394 billion = Rs.8,817 b
Credit Growth was marginally above INFLATION say 20% and Exchange Rate 12% or 13%. There was NEGLIGIBLE Credit flow to Private Sector – NEGATIVE TO INDUSTRY.
Trade Deficit at is all-time high of $160b – Economy is STRUGGLING.
NPAs have already exceed Rs.10,000 billion but ‘When A Company Defaults in Clearing Bank Dues, it Already had Defaulted in payment to Supplies of Products & Services and Own Employees.’
India must Accurately Release PUBLIC DATA – Flows of Water, Deposit & Credit Growth, Revenue Earned by PSUs and Private Sector, Jobs and Salary Paid to Employees, Price and Supply of Fruits and Vegetables in real time basis.
Majority of Indians from Birth to Age 30 prepare for EXAMS and very few Qualify for Civil Service – There is no time for LEARNING & Skilling. 1.5m Appear for UPSC but only 1100 are selected for appointment.
Manipal University – Oldest and one the Biggest in terms of intake in six decades has not created a Single Useful Patent – files Bogus Patents.
TV Mohandas Pai when asked ‘Why can’t you Clean BANGALURU and Prevent Flooding?’
He blamed it on REGULATORY issues.
It was repeatedly pointed out ‘China has 15 Global Icons India None’ Mohandas Pai blamed legacy issue – Not on Failure of Education System which are MILKING MONEY than providing world class education.
Hair Cut ‘Service’ Economy
Just before Demonetization I was paying Rs.80 for Hair Cut – soon after Demonetization Rs.100 – last time Rs.150 – So Services contribution Could Go Up 100% without new investment or job creation.
Ravinder Singh, Inventor & Consultant, INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES AND PROJECTS
Y-77, Hauz Khas, ND -110016, India. Ph: 091- 8826415770, 9871056471, 9650421857
Ravinder Singh* is a WIPO awarded inventor specializing in Power, Transportation,
Smart Cities, Water, Energy Saving, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Technologies and Projects