CPR: Emission Co2 will double in 2030

Path to zero carbon emissions

Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions.

Dear colleagues,
New research by the Initiative on Climate, Energy, and Environment at the Centre for Policy Research shows that in 2030, India’s CO2 emissions from energy will at most double from 2012 levels, consistent with the government’s Paris emissions pledge. The paper is called ‘India’s Energy and Emissions Future: an interpretive analysis of model scenarios‘ and is published in Environmental Research Letters.
Highlights:
The Centre for Policy Research interpreted the results of 15 national emissions scenarios across 7 studies with reference to India’s rapidly changing energy policy landscape.
  • In 2030, India’s CO2 emissions from energy will at most double from 2012 levels, consistent with the government’s Paris emissions pledge.
  • Additional policies could further reduce India’s 2030 emissions.
  • Even if India’s emissions double by 2030, they will be lower than China’s equivalent emissions in 2015.
  • Even if emissions double by 2030, India’s expected per capita emissions will be lower than today’s global average.
  • India can expect a faster than predicted shift from coal to renewable energy, and lower than expected energy demand growth – both of which point to lower 2030 emissions.
The complete open-access paper in Environmental Research Letters, which discusses the implications of these results for India’s energy sector, can be found here. 
 

CPR’s Initiative on Climate, Energy, and Environment seeks to generate research and analysis on the global climate negotiations, and on the links between the global climate regime and domestic laws, policies and institutions in India. It also seeks to create a platform from which scholars and activists can engage in policy and academic debate on climate change. For further details on our work visit, http://cprindia.org/projects/climate-initiative

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